Base Case

Major features of the Base Case are as follows:

  • Targets set out in the draft ARE Policy 2019 (20% and 30% of the installed capacity by the year 2025 and 2030, respectively)
  • Normal scenario of long-term forecast used (GDP 5.5%)
  • GDP projections by Ministry of Planning, Development and Reforms
  • Hydro optimisation during the study horizon
  • Existing contractual obligations are maintained till the end of contract
  • Retirement of power plants as per respective PPA term

Its is estimated that total nominal installed capacity in year 2047 will reach 168,246 MW against a peak load of 103,065 MW. It is evident through the results that there is a wide disparity of thousands of MW between the projected demand and the nominal capacity. It is pertinent to mention here that this gap is due to the heavy induction of thermal generation source i.e. RLNG and other thermal options having high capacity factors and reserve provisioning characteristics to cope up with the intermittent nature of variable renewable energy. Due to this, the already expensive installed plants become unutilised with none or minimal despatch till their retirement year, even though they may be available for generation.


Planned Capacity Addition by Fuel Type:

To meet the required demand estimates an addition capacity of 148,074 MW is planned to be developed during period 2020 to 2047. Following table shows the planned capacity addition during each year by fuel type.

Capacity Addition by Fuel & Year

Capacity Addition by Fuel & Year

Based on these plans, cumulative capacity of new projects for each planning year is shown is table below.

Cumulative Installed Capacity by Fuel & Year

Cumulative Installed Capacity by Fuel & Year

Energy Mix by Fuel & Year

Energy Mix by Fuel & Year (New Projects Only)

It is evident from above tables that share of hydropower kept decreasing till year 2040, where it stands 14.51% of total new installed capacity. As most of hydropower projects are planned in last 5 years of planning period, ultimate share of hydropower rises to 31.02% in year 2047. Similarly share of local coal and RLNG based projects stands ~22% and ~18% at the end of planning period respectively.


Planned Capacity Addition by Implementing Agency:

To develop an enormous capacity of ~148,000 MW, role of all relevant implementing agencies becomes critical and IGCEP has outlined the capacity to be developed by all these implementing agencies. Following table shows the planned capacity addition during each year by different implementing agencies.

Capacity Addition by Agency & Year

Capacity Addition by Agency & Year

Based on these plans, cumulative capacity of new projects for each planning year is shown is table below.

Cumulative Installed Capacity by Agency & Year

Cumulative Installed Capacity by Agency & Year

Energy Mix by Agency & Year

Energy Mix by Agency & Year (New Projects Only)

It is to be noted that approximately 60% of the planned capacity has not be allotted to any implementing agency for now and will be decided later. Out of remaining 40% capacity, WAPDA has been allotted biggest chunk of development i.e. ~23%. Remaining 17% is supposed to be developed by 11 different implementing agencies. Out of total planned installed capacity of 148,074, it is proposed that 45,929 MW of capacity will be hydropower projects. WAPDA is allotted 74% of total planned hydropower capacity i.e. 33,765 MW.


Velocity of Development:

Approximately 50% o total planned capacity will be made available during first 15 years of planning period i.e. by the end of year 2035. remaining 50% of the capacity is planned to be installed during next 12 years. Following table shows the annual capacity addition figures (MW) and progress in percentage terms.

ANNUAL CAPACITY ADDTION AND VELOCITY OF DEVELOPMENT

Annual Capacity Addition & Velocity of Development

Note: Increase CFLY means Increase in capacity from last year.


Status of Projects:

All projects planned during 2020 and 2047 are classified either as committed or candidate projects. A project is considered as committed one provided the project fulfils at least one of the following pre-requisites:

  • Already under construction;
  • Has achieved financial close;
  • Has strategic importance i.e. China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) project;
  • A G2G project

Candidate projects are further divided into Specific and generic candidate projects. Specific candidate projects are those projects which are identified by various implementing agencies but on early stages of development. Generic candidate projects are those for which technology and total size is decided but no further study is being carried out till now.

Following table shows the proposed installed capacity with respect to status of project and proposed implementing agency.

Installed Capacity vs Implementing Agency vs Project Status

Installed Capacity vs Implementing Agency vs Project Status

Following table shows the proposed installed capacity with respect to status of project and proposed technology.

Installed Capacity Vs Fuel Vs Project Status

Installed Capacity Vs Fuel Vs Project Status

Phases of Planning:

Whole planning period is divided in two phases i.e. phase-1 from year 2020 to year 2030 & phase-2 from year 2031-47. Following table shows the proposed installed capacity with respect to planning phase and implementing agency.

Installed Capacity vs Phases vs Implementing Agency

Installed Capacity vs Phases vs Implementing Agency

Following table shows the proposed installed capacity with respect to planning phase and base fuel technology.

Installed Capacity vs Phases vs Fuel

Installed Capacity vs Phases vs Fuel

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