Power Sector Inside Out (Part-3)

Performance Evaluation of Power Sector

The claim that Pakistan has 24,375 MW installed capacity is true for books, magazines and newspapers, however the capacity lone cannot be used as an indicator to measure the efficiency of power system. The average net capacity factor of all performing power projects settled around 50%, however the in depth analysis below shows that this can be improved by improving the below average projects by additional financing, management efficiency and technical upgrades.

Non- Performing Power Projects

While expert say, Pakistan has an installed capacity of 24,375 MW during this year, please don’t get confused, because 636 MW did not contribute a single Kilowatt hour to the national grid. During the analysis, we found that the average capacity factor of all the power projects in the country remained 49.41% for year 2013-14, however, if we take out the non performing projects from analysis, the capacity factor moves in positive direction and concludes 50.20% for the same period.

Following is the list of all projects which remained non-productive for the economy during this time period.

Table 6: Non-Performing Projects

Power Station

Technology

Capacity MW

Generation GWh

Capacity Factor

NGPS Multan

STs

195

0.00%

Southern Electric

DEs

136

0.00%

Japan Power

DE

135

0.00%

Korangi TPS

STs

125

0.00%

GTPS Shahdara

GTs

44

0.00%

Garam Chashma

Hydro

1

0.00%

DHA Cogen.

GT+ST

*94

0.00%

Aggreko (Rental)

0

*54

0.00%

Engro Polymer

GTs+ST

*70

0.00%

Al-Abbas (Coal)

ST

*15

0.00%

Korangi Town GTPS-I

GTs

*20

0.00%

Site GTPS-I

GTs

*20

0.00%

TPS Pasni

DE

*17

0.00%

GTPS Panjgoor

GTs

*39

0.00%

Total

 

636

0.00%

*The plants are not operational now and therefore not included in total installed capacity & other analysis.

If we take out these non-performing megawatts out of total installed capacity, we are left with 23,739 MW which contributed in the economy of the country during year 2013-14.

Power Projects with Low Capacity Factor

For the sake of analysis we have low ranked the projects which failed to achieve capacity factor above 30%.

There are 19 projects which were operational but couldn’t achieve the capacity factor above than 30% due to management inefficiency or technological constraints. Nameplate cumulative capacity of such projects is 3,032 MW and they were able to generate 4,788 GWh with an average capacity factor of 18.02%

Table 7: Power Projects with Capacity Factor below 30%

Power Station

Capacity

Generation GWh

Capacity Factor

PASMIC

165

9

0.62%

SPS Faisalabad

132

45

3.89%

GTPS Faisalabad

244

130

6.08%

FBC Lakhra (Coal)

150

112

8.52%

GTPS Kotri

174

170

11.15%

Saba Power

134

138

11.75%

Site GTPS-II

97

113

13.29%

Gomal Zam

17

26

17.45%

Duber Khwar

130

227

19.89%

Uch Power-II

381

757

22.67%

IIL (4 MW)

4

8

22.82%

TPS Guddu (Units 1-4)

640

1,284

22.89%

KANUPP

137

293

24.40%

Shadiwal

14

31

25.06%

Halmore Power

225

504

25.55%

Orient Power

225

541

27.43%

Rasul

22

53

27.48%

TPS Quetta

35

85

27.70%

Zorlu Enerji Pakistan

106

263

28.30%

Total

3,032

4,788

18.02%

Out of these 19 projects, nine have capacity factor less than 20% and account 41% of total installed capacity of the list above. The average capacity factor of these 9 projects is just 8.90% and if we adjust the capacity with net capacity factor of all performing projects, it is as low as 220 MW as compared to nameplate capacity of 1,243 MW.

From the list above, 15 projects adding up 2,629 MW i.e. 86.71% of total capacity in this group belong to Pepco system, while the remaining are connected to KEL system. Four of the thermal IPPs, as well, could not achieve the capacity factor above 30%. The cumulative capacity of these IPPs is 965 MW and the average capacity factor resulted 22.93%.

Power Projects with Medium Capacity Factor

For the sake of analysis we have medium ranked the projects which have achieved capacity above 30% but failed to cross the average net capacity factor of 50.20%.

There are 23 projects which landed in this category with cumulative capacity of 11,253 MW, which are equivalent to 46.17% of total installed capacity in the country during year 2013-14. This group has generated 42,615 GWh, 40.36% of the total generation in the country during the same period. Eleven projects from the group, with a collective capacity of 2,929 MW could achieve capacity factor below 40%, thus averaging 34.95%. Whereas twelve projects of this group with collective capacity of 8,324 MW, achieved capacity factor above 40% and averaged to 46.11%.

Table 8: Power Projects with Capacity Factor below 50.20%

Power Station

Capacity

Generation GWh

Capacity Factor

Chichoki Mallian

13

37

32.13%

Pehur (PEDO)

18

51

32.32%

Renala

1

3

33.77%

Bin Qasim TPS-I

1,260

3,766

34.10%

Nandipur

14

42

34.22%

TPS Guddu (Units 5-13)

1,015

3,115

35.01%

Jinnah

96

297

35.29%

Saif Power

225

723

36.66%

Sapphire Electric

235

760

36.89%

Jabban

22

74

38.37%

Jagran AJ&K

30

105

39.93%

TPS Jamshoro

850

2,982

40.02%

ISL (19 MW)

19

67

40.23%

Khan Khwar

72

261

41.35%

Korangi CCPP

220

799

41.43%

Chitral

1

4

41.98%

TPS Muzaffargarh

1,350

5,132

43.37%

Warsak

243

934

43.85%

Allai Khwar

121

471

44.41%

KAPCO

1,638

6,479

45.12%

TNB Liberty Power

235

943

45.78%

Korangi Town GTPS-II

97

393

46.22%

Tarbela

3,478

15,178

49.78%

Total

11,253

42,615

43.20%

More than half of the list (12 projects) are hydropower projects with aggregate capacity of 4,109 MW, making 16.86% of total installed capacity in the country and 36.51% of this group. These hydropower projects generated 17,456 GWh contributing 16.53% to national grid and 40.96% to the collective generation of this group. The average capacity factor of all hydropower projects in this list summed up to 48.86% with a standard deviation of 5.56%. A majority of these hydropower projects (10) are owned and operated by Wapda.

Seven projects from the group are thermal power projects owned and operated by public sector. The total capacity of these projects is 5,548 MW, making 49.30% of total installed capacity of this group and 22.76% of total installed capacity of country. These projects generated 20,134 GWh, 47.25% of total generation of this group and 19.07% of total generation of country during 2013-14. The average capacity factor of these public sector thermal projects remained 41.40% with standard deviation of 4.39%.

Four projects from the group belong to KEL system, where three of them are owned and operated by KEL itself. Together these four projects add up 1,596 MW i.e. 6.55% to the total installed capacity of the country. However they could contribute merely 4.76% (totaling up as 5,025 MW) to the total energy generated in the country. These projects were able to reach the average capacity factor of 35.92%, with a standard deviation of 4.99%.

Power Projects with High Capacity Factor

For the sake of analysis we have high ranked the projects which have achieved capacity above the average net capacity factor of 50.20%.

Projects falling in this group represent 38.79% of total installed capacity of the country summing up to 9,454 MW. Together they generated 57,051 GWh contributing 54.04% of the total generation of country during year 2013-14. Average capacity factor of this group ended up at 68.84% with a standard deviation of 11.41%. High standard deviation is due to large and versatile projects included in this group where capacity factors ranged between 51.33% and 86.54%.

Table 9: Power Projects with Capacity Factor above 50.20%

Power Station

Capacity

Generation GWh

Capacity Factor

Dargai

20

90

51.33%

Gul Ahmed

128

582

51.87%

Kurram Garhi

4

19

54.19%

Habibullah Coastal

140

670

54.59%

Malakand-III (PEDO)

81

389

54.79%

Ghazi Barotha

1,450

7,008

55.13%

Davis Energen.

11

54

56.00%

HUBCO

1,292

7,086

62.57%

Pak Gen. Power

365

2,031

63.48%

Laraib Energy

84

470

63.83%

Anoud Power

15

84

63.88%

Chashma

184

1,031

63.89%

Lal Pir Power

362

2,081

65.58%

Mangla

1,000

5,872

66.99%

Rousch Power

450

2,760

69.97%

CHASNUPP-I

325

2,000

70.20%

Engro Powergen

227

1,441

72.42%

Tapal Energy

124

798

73.41%

Bin Qasim TPS-II

560

3,639

74.13%

Altern Energy

31

205

75.44%

Atlas Power

224

1,519

77.36%

CHASNUPP-II

325

2,208

77.50%

Kohinoor Energy

131

890

77.50%

HUBCO Narowal

225

1,562

79.19%

Nishat Power

202

1,464

82.68%

Nishat Chunian

202

1,471

83.07%

Uch Power

586

4,314

83.98%

Foundation Power

183

1,359

84.72%

Liberty Power Tech.

202

1,520

85.84%

Attock Gen.

164

1,243

86.46%

Fauji Kabirwala

157

1,191

86.54%

Total

9,454

57,051

68.84%

Private sector thermal IPPs played a major role to uplift the performance of this group. There are 18 thermal IPPs in this group with accumulative installed capacity of 5,154 MW, thus making 21.14% of total installed capacity of the country and 54.52% of the total installed capacity of this group. During the year 2013-14, these thermal IPPs generated 32,861 GWh which is equivalent to 31.13% of total generation of the country and 57.60% of total generation of this group during the year. The average capacity factor of these thermal IPPs remained 72.73% with a standard deviation of 10.56%.

Out of these 18 thermal IPPs, ten operated using RFO as primary fuel while the remaining 8 used Gas as primary fuel. The IPPs using RFO as primary fuel have cumulative installed capacity of 3,369 MW, 13.82% of total installed capacity of the country and 35.64% of the installed capacity of this group. Together these RFO based IPPs generated 20,867 GWh during year 2013-14, 19.76% of total generation in the country and 36.58% of the total generation of this group. The average capacity factor of these RFO based thermal IPPs became 70.66% with standard deviation of 9.19%.

The IPPs using Gas as primary fuel have cumulative installed capacity of 1,785 MW, 7.32% of total installed capacity of the country and 18.88% of the installed capacity of this group. Together these Gas based IPPs generated 11,994 GWh during year 2013-14, 11.36% of total generation in the country and 21.02% of the total generation of this group. The average capacity factor of these Gas based thermal IPPs became 76.65% with standard deviation of 12.45%.

There are 24 hydropower project in the country but only 7 could make their place in this list. Out of these five projects are owned and operated by Wapda (Public Sector) and two belong to private sector. The installed capacity of these 7 hydropower projects summed up to 2,823 MW i.e. 29.86% of total installed capacity of this group and 11.58% of total installed capacity of the country. Total units of energy generated by these hydel projects is 14,879 GWh i.e. 14.09% of total generation in the country and 26.08% of generation of all projects in this group. The average capacity factor of all hydropower projects in this list remained 60.12% with standard deviation of 6.12%.

2017-09-15T10:51:12+00:00 Blog, Inside Out|Comments Off on Power Sector Inside Out (Part-3)