Introduction:

Integrated Generation Capacity Expansion Plan (“IGCEP”) is a comprehensive capacity expansion plan developed by National Transmission & Distribution Company (“NTDC”) under obligation imposed by National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (“NEPRA”) Grid Code. Current IGCEP covers 28 years of planning period starting from year 2020 and ending on year 2047. The study is prepared by Load Forecast and Generation Planning (LF&GP) component of Power System Planning (PSP), NTDC.

Click here to download the IGCEP 2020-47 report from Nepra Website

Current IGCEP is not the first of its kind ever prepared by country. Similar 4 plans have already been developed by relevant authorities since year 1994 as follows;

  1. National Power Plan (NPP 1994-2018) developed by Canadian Consultant, M/s ACRES International Limited;
  2. National Power System Expansion Plan (NPSEP 2011-2030) developed by Canadian Consultant, M/s SNC Lavalin;
  3. Least Cost Plan (LCP 2016-2035) developed by Japanese Consultant, M/s International Institute of Electric Power, Ltd. (IIEP); and
  4. Indicative Generation Capacity Expansion Plan (IGCEP 2040)

As per NTDC current IGCEP is prepared using state of art PLEXOS software. Plexos is an object oriented simulation tool based on optimization. It is capable of production costing, expansion planning, maintenance planning and market assessment. The generation planning study is composed of two key processes:

  1. Load forecast; and then
  2. Generation capacity expansion and despatch optimization exercises.

IGCEP study is a huge document with approximately 1,360 pages, most of which are annexures of data resulting from various scenarios proposed by NTDC. Before analysing the data presented in the study, first task for any layman is to understand the formation of IGCEP report, which is outlined hereunder;

Including Base Case Scenario, there are 13 different scenarios discussed in the IGCEP study. Assumptions and Results of these scenarios are presented in relevant annexures of the report. The study can be divided in two main parts i.e. main report and annexures. Base Case Scenario and other matters about the study are discussed in the main report. All other scenarios, respective assumptions and results are shown in relevant annexures of the report.

Navigation Guide to IGCEP

Results from Data Model prepared by AJC Private Limited

Description of Scenarios Considered by IGCEP

Base Case Scenario

  • Targets set out in the draft ARE Policy 2019 (20% and 30% of the installed capacity by the year 2025 and 2030, respectively)
  • Normal scenario of long-term forecast used (GDP 5.5%)
  • GDP projections by Ministry of Planning, Development and Reform
  • Hydro optimization during the study horizon
  • Existing contractual obligations are maintained till the end of contract
  • Retirement of power plants as per respective PPA term

HPP Free Scenario

In this scenario also known as Hydro Optimization Not Horizon Bound, it is not mandatory for the optimization tool to select all candidate hydro power projects within the study horizon i.e. by 2020-47, meaning the tool may select or out rightly omit any candidate hydro power plant based on least cost criteria. The results are this scenario are shown in Annexure-C of the IGCEP.

IMF Demand Scnario

All other parameters are same as those of the base case except for the demand numbers i.e. the IMF based GDP projections have been used to devise load demand forecast till 2047. The results are shown in Annexure-D of the IGCEP report.

No VRE Policy Scenario

All other parameters are same as of base case except that no GoP’s VRE targets are forced to the tool; rather the tool is free to optimize all technologies based on least cost criteria. The results are attached as Annexure-E of the IGCEP report.

Low Demand Scenario

All other parameters are same as those of the base case except for the demand numbers i.e. the GDP projection of 4.5% has been used to devise load demand forecast till 2047. The results are attached as Annexure-F of the IGCEP report.

High Demand Scenario

All other parameters are same as those of base case except for the demand numbers i.e. the GDP projection of 6.5% has been used to devise load demand forecast till 2047. The results are attached as Annexure-G of the IGCEP report.

Candidate CCGTs and OCGTs on Local Gas

All other parameters are same as of base case except that, the generic candidate CCGTs and OCGTs have been considered on local gas instead of RLNG. The results are attached as Annexure-H of the IGCEP report.

No New Generic Candidate CCGTs and OCGTs

All other parameters are same as of base case except that, no new generic candidate CCGTs and OCGTs have been considered either on local gas or on RLNG. The results are shown in Annexure-I of the study.

Inclusion of 25% of Total Load Management

All other parameters are same as of base case except that, 25% of total load management has been considered. The results are available in Annexure-J of the report.

Inclusion of 50% of Total Load Management

All other parameters are same as of base case except that, 50% of total load management has been considered. The results are attached as Annexure-K.

Excluding Load Management

All other parameters are same as of base case except that, no total load management has been considered. The results are attached as Annexure-L.

Excluding Load Management, EVs & NPHS Demand

All other parameters are same as of base case except that, neither load management nor the demand of EVs and NPHS has been considered. The results are attached as Annexure M.

Jamshoro CFPP (Unit-II) as candidate power plant

All other parameters are same as of base case except that, Unit-II of Jamshoro CFPP has been considered as a candidate power plant. The results are attached as Annexure-N.